Sunday, May 21, 2006

quickie review

Enron: the Smartest Guys in the Room
Saw this at the Odeon Swiss Cottage last night. Pretty decent documentary. I'd forgotten that it came out much earlier in the US, and that I'd seen a bit of it before leaving for London last June. In particular, the bits about Lou Pei I think I'd seen on cable TV last Spring. But it was good to see the whole thing.

What are the take-home lessons here?
  • Wide-scale lying and deceit really doesn't get overseen by the "marketplace" very efficiently.
  • A LOT of people who must have known what was going on with Enron were quite happy to play along for the short run, collecting profits while the stock prices were high. I would wager that some of the people involved in the banks would even argue that their "fiduciary duty" required them to take advantage of an evident scam, as long as it was having a positive impact on their on firm's short-term profits.
  • A lot of the Enron people involved seemed quite a bit insecure about their role in the debacle. There's a lot of "go-along-to-get-along" in corporate America.
  • It's appalling to see the evil at the roots of the energy "crisis" in California. It's the kind of thing that made me think that, one of these days, one of these hot-shot energy traders is liable to get himself shot. Quite seriously, the idea of creating rolling blackouts to increase one own's profits is horribly selfish, and a blatant violation of the public trust under which all corporations are governed.
  • To put this more bluntly: if corporations want to be treated as "persons", which they evidently do in some manners, they need to develop a bit more in terms of social responsibility. As an entity, Enron was behaving like a sociopath. When that happens, the people who are driving the train to hell need to face some kind of personal backlash commensurate with the crimes they are committing.
  • I'm truly amazed that Enron was not only getting away with their bogus financing for so many years, but that the entire business culture was willing to not only not hold Enron up to scrutiny before the Fortune article by Bethany McLean, but were willing to declare Enron a model corporation.
  • This latter fact has to make one very dubious about the merits of widespread deregulation as an approach to corporate law. History is clear that people without oversight or regulation who have the power to rip off the public will do so. In the case of the energy industry in particular, that is essentially a monopolistic utility. The possibility for market manipulation is just too evident if there is no regulation.

Rain, rain, go away

Crappy weather this weekend.

Must..have..backup..plan...when it rains.....

Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Royal Mail Sucks!

Dude! Stop bogarting my DVDs!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Tuesday, April 18, 2006

Can the law protect lawbreaking?

I'm wondering this with regard to the argument that the publication, by Risen and Lichtblau, that the NSA had been conducting illegal wiretaps since 2002 somehow constituted a violation of national security laws.

Um, the program's illegal, right? How can an illegal program be protected by declaring it to be classified? (I ask this as a question for legal experts, not as a practical question. I mean, duh, the government has to classify anything that it's doing beyond its legal mandate, if it wants to pursue an action contrary to the law.)

Seriously, which is closer to treason, breaking the law or talking about somebody else who broke the law?

Well, if you believe in the restitution of Divine Right, which I thought had gone out of fashion hundreds of years ago, it all comes down to which person is the Republican.

Those wacky American supremacists!

Thursday, March 16, 2006

Censure Bush!

At the very least.

Word is that the Democratic leadership is mulling over their options about censuring Bush. I'm really trying to see the political downside. Because the moral necessity appears to be quite apparent.

Bush has been the worst President in living memory. The White House has not had such an undistinguished occupant since the dreary days of the late 19th century. A short list of the reasons why Bush should be impeached, or at least censured:
  • His administration has willfully violated the FISA law, and violated the Constitutional rights of American citizens.
  • His administration lied to the American public to get its backing for a war in Iraq that would have otherwise been unpopular. (WMDs? Ties to Al Qaeda?)
  • His administration regularly practices kidnapping and torture, in Iraq, Afganistan, Cuba, and parts around the world.
That should be enough.

The Democratic leadership, aside from Feingold (and sometimes Dean), appears to believe that their role in the process is to constantly gauge what the public wants and to go with that. Or perhaps they are afraid of opposing Bush on any matter related to security at all.

Why they should have no fear:

  • Bush is a freaking incompetent. While the treason-mongers will hate you for saying this, the fact remains that Bush has managed the military and intelligence communities about as poorly as humanly possible.
  • Bush has a 33% approval rating.
  • Standing up for the rule of law is going to inevitably be popular. Politicians have to understand that instinctively.
  • Regardless of whether there's ability for the White House to retaliate, there is an imperative to at least try to do something to stop the Republican consolidation of power.
Democratic leaders who don't understand the fourth point above are taking a lot of their base's support for granted.

Tuesday, January 24, 2006

the Howell nonsense, and Shafer's lame response

Howell's original comment:

"Schmidt quickly found that Abramoff was getting 10 to 20 times as much from Indian tribes as they had paid other lobbyists. And he had made substantial campaign contributions to both major parties."

The second sentence is a lie planted in the discourse by Republicans. We expect better from an ombudsman.

Howell's followup. She admits that this statement about Abramoff is untrue (and it's easily shown to be untrue, which makes us wonder how it got into her column in the first place), but insists on setting up a line of defense on another lie that makes it seem like the point was essentially true.

"But there is no doubt about the campaign contributions that were directed to lawmakers of both parties."

There certainly is plenty of doubt.

This has been blogged aplenty in the past week, by Kos, Firedoglake, Media Matters, and the rest of the usual suspects. Jack Shafer's response at Slate is disappointing.

Even though the bloggers were correct and Howell was in the wrong, Shafer still finds room to throw a dart at the bloggers, portraying them as whiners. The phrase he uses is 'perpetually aggrived'. Is it realy appropiate to say that about somebody who brings up a valid complaint?

My response to Shafer. Shafer said:

"I'm no Howell fan, but blogger accusations that she is carrying
water for the right or peddling some bias are completely
unwarranted."
It's not merely that she made a factual error claiming that Abramoff
had given money to Democrats.

This is what she said on January 15:

"Schmidt quickly found that Abramoff was getting 10 to 20 times as
much from Indian tribes as they had paid other lobbyists. And he had made substantial campaign contributions to both major parties."
Jack Abramoff has never made any contributions to Democrats. So
where does this 'factoid' come into the public discourse? It's
fairly clear that this is a lie put out by the Republicans trying to
water down the impact of the Abramoff scandal. Many have complained
about Sue Schmidt's willingness to pass on Republican stories into
her reporting without a real effort at challenging or verifying them.
In this case, the story is a lie, an easily debunked lie.

What outrages Howell's critics, and ought to outrage you if you care
about journalism, is that Howell is purportedly an _ombudsman_. She
is supposed to represent the views of the readers (and not the GOP
establishment). So what is her response when readers challenge
Schmidt's reporting? There is no effort to contact people who know
the facts in this column. Instead, she simply repeats what Schmidt
wrote. I.e, she repeats a lie.

There are different levels of outrage when a lie is spread. At the
first level, there is the primary liar. One understands that lying
is a part of politics. Yes it is annoying, but it happens. Some
outrage is held in reserve for the primary liar.

The second level is the reporter who uncritically passes on the lies.
Apparently this is the Post policy these days, and it is widespread
in 'journalism' as it is commonly practiced. My personal opinion is
that a person who facilitates the spread of lies into the wider
community is doing that community a disservice. The reporter
invovled here is either a dupe, in which case she merits our contempt
for her reporting skills, or an active participant in the lie, in
which case she merits our contempt for her morals.

But the ombudsman who responds to reader complaints by throwing the
lie back in our faces, again uncritically? It's hard to see that
she's not a huge part of the problem. Again, she's either
incompetent or malicious. It has been said that one should not
presume malice when incompetence is an equally likely possibility,
but in this case, the incompetence required is staggering. How does
one rise to the position of Post ombudsman, one of the most visible
journalistic positions in the country, with such a feeble grasp of
the basics of fact-checking? And it is one thing to miss a fact
check as the primary reporter, who is dealing with a large number of
facts and possibly mendacious sources. But we expect a higher level
of performance when a disputed claim is singled out to the ombudsman.
In the current instance, the higher level of performance only
occurred when she was criticized heavily.

And even the higher level of performance was not terribly high. Ms.
Howell moved from the obviously debunked lie of 'Abramoff gave
substantial campaign dontations to both parties' to the less easily
debunked, but still mendacious, claim that he had 'directed his
clients' to make donations to both parties.

It is true that Abramoff's Indian clients gave donations to the
Democrats. Other things that ought to have been mentioned include:
- the Indians had been giving donations to Democrats long before they
had any association with Abramoff
- the tribes with the closest relationships to Abramoff significantly
reduced the amount of money they gave to Democrats when they came
under his influence
- Abramoff has been quoted mocking the decisions of his clients to
give money to Democrats
- nobody involved in the Abramoff criminal investigation is alleging
that there is any criminal connection to Indian tribes' dontations to
Democrats.

In the larger picture, we have an effort on the part of the GOP to
drag down the Democratic party in the scandal that centers around a
prominent Republican activist. A news media that was doing its job
properly would point out the falsity of this spin. Ms. Howell,
instead, passed on the canard dutifully, and seems instead to feel
that her critics, who correctly point out that she's passing on lies,
are somehow to blame.

Back to your point that I cite at the top: to all appearances,
Howell has been willing to carry water for the Republicans, at least
until she is held up to a firestorm of criticism.
"Attacking somebody as if they are your enemy when they clearly
aren't makes no sense."
I would dispute your usage of the word 'clearly' here. Clearly Ms.
Howell has at best a lazy attitude towards the responsibilities of an
ombudsman. Her behavior is much more like a water carrier than like
a serious journalist.

And finally,
"Unless, of course, you're among the perpetually aggrieved and you've tired of flogging the usual villains."
Either you agree with Howell's original statement, that Abramoff
donated substantial sums of money to the Democrats, or you have no
business whining about the people who correctly took her to task for
her role in perpetuating the flow of misinformation.

Update:
Shafer responded to my letter.

"I intended no defense of Howell. I think what the bloggers did to the post site is a little sick. Would you defend the smashing of Post windows?"

Well, I'm glad that no defense of Howell is intended. But I'm not seeing the analog to window smashing.

Friday, December 23, 2005

spying on Americans

OK, let's discuss the two many issues here:
  1. The legality/Constitutionality of the Bush NSA surveillance program
  2. The mendacity of the Bush administration's defense
  3. The effectiveness of data mining surveillance
  4. The wisdom of this approach to law enforcement.
The warrantless wiretapping approach is obviously illegal and unconstitutional. What remains in question is how important that is to people. The illegality can be seen simply by referring to President Bush's on speeches on the subject.

The legal defense put forward has been inconsistent and absurd. Others have commented upon this in depth, so I don't feel the need to.

Point 3 is the only thing that the administration has going for it. But here's the problem, and where Point 4 is important: this attitude misreads what the purpose of the police is. The police's purpose in life is not to constantly hold everybody in suspicion. This is why the Constitution protects Americans against "unreasonable search and seizure". If the police were given the power to search private residences at their own whim, there would likely be an increase in the arrest and conviction rate. But what is the cost?

From a statistical standpoint, the phenomenon can be viewed in the prism of false positive and false negative rates. Increasing police powers will (allegedly, at least) reduce the false negative rate; i.e., reduce the crime rate (and/or rate of terrorist attacks). But they also increase the false positive rate.

This is where the debate about torture becomes relevant. Torture has the potential to push the false positive rate up significantly. The problem in this instance is that the police, once they have taken a person's liberty away, have the incentive to maintain that denial of liberty. If it becomes apparent that an innocent person has been seized, or spied upon, the reaction of the police is generally to be insensitive and uncaring about the plight of the person whose rights have been violated.

I can understand that the police want more power, but I tend to think that the police will always want more power. I'm not convinced that giving the police more power is the answer to the problems that society faces.