Monday, November 03, 2008

election predictions

Well, it has become the fashion to publish predictions for the election. I just follow the news, but what the heck, seeing as I pick football games every weekend, why not do so for the election?


Well, of course Obama wins. He's well ahead in many of the polls.

As to the State-by-State particulars...

for starters, Obama will probably win every Kerry state. The only one that might flip is New Hampshire. McCain has been putting a lot of effort into trying to make a dent in Pennsylvania, but it will be for naught. I even think that he might know that, but feels that he has to make the effort, or else it will be obvious that he's given up.

For poll details, I suggest

The Bush states where Obama has been leading in polls include
Iowa (+>10%), New Mexico (+8-17%), Colorado (+4-10%), Virginia (+4-9%), Ohio (-2-+9%), Nevada (+4-10%). These have been leads of a reasonably consistent margin.

Other possibilities include Florida and North Carolina, where Nate Silver's simulations tend to favor Obama. Next in line is Missouri, which is the nearest thing to a true toss-up we see.

Red states that might flip in a true landslide include Indiana, Georgia, Montana, and North Dakota.

When I add the states in the first group to Obama's column, his total rises to 311. If I put all the states in the last group into McCain's column, he's at 174.

I'm going to put NC in McCain's column, and FL and MO in Obama's column. The last two are a bit dicey, as both states are notorious for voter suppression. But, what the heck, eh?

If all of this happens, Obama will win 349-189.

PoD says Obama will get 326. He flips NC, FL, and MO from my picks.

Landru says the exact same, but informs me "I said so first".

OK, so now I've changed my mind and switched NC and MO. That would make it 353 for Obama, 185 for McCain.

I have nothing to add about the House or Senate races.

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