First, it appears that this analysis is based on the assumption that the Colts' footballs were gauged right after the Patriots' footballs. I refer to PDF page 162 (p.2 of the Exponent report)
According to information provided by Paul, Weiss, during the halftime period, three events pertaining to the footballs are known to have occurred:I'm very suspicious of this need to make an assumption. Here are things we know. 1. The Patriots' balls were tested first. 2. The stated excuse for only testing four Colts' balls is "we ran out of time", 3. Between the two sets of tests, Prioleau and Blakeman switched gauges.
1. The air pressure measurements of 11 Patriots footballs were taken and recorded.
2. The air pressure measurements of four Colts footballs were taken and recorded.
3. The reinflation and regauging of 11 Patriots footballs to a level within the 12.5–13.5 psig range was performed.
According to information provided by Paul, Weiss, it is clear that of the three events listed above, the measuring of the Patriots balls occurred first. Although there remains some uncertainty about the exact order and timing of the other two events, it appears likely the reinflation and regauging occurred last. According to security footage, the footballs were taken back to the field for the second half at approximately 8:42:30 pm, meaning that they were inside the Officials Locker Room for no more than 13 minutes and 30 seconds. Therefore, all three of the above listed events must have taken no longer than 13.5 minutes to complete.
I would argue that it's much more likely that they switched gauges if the reinflation and regauging of the Patriots' footballs took place before the Colts' balls were tested. In this scenario, the gauges are put down and the pumps are taken out to reinflate the balls that are all arrayed around the room. The officials have emptied a bag of footballs, it seems more likely that they'd want to fill that bag again before emptying the other bag - for a good number of reasons. I'm very hard-pressed to imagine the opposite scenario, the one that Exponent claims is more likely: With 11 balls lying around the room, how likely is it that somebody looks at his watch and says "It will take an indeterminate amount of time to reinflate and gauge these balls. But I'm pretty sure we only have time to gauge four of them. Let's start that process, abort it 1/3 of the way through, and then return to the Patriots' footballs." It's a nonsensical scene.
I would also argue that if this point were important, and it were true that the Colts' balls were done in the middle, that it would be easily confirmed. I am not buying into "there remains some uncertainty about the order of events." You had a room full of people and none of them can remember if the Colts' balls were tested before or after the Patriots' balls were reinflated? Given that the excuse for not doing all the Colts' footballs was "We ran out of time," I think we already have solid information that this part of the halftime procedure was last. But like Walt Anderson's recollection about which gauge was used before the game started, a recollection that supports the Patriots' case is discarded.
So, let's look at what the air pressures actually were. At some point I might address the rest of the Exponent report, but let's just say that they do a whole lot of simulations, apparently with the theory that if you don't have actual data, you should replace it with simulations. Huzzah!