Featuring P^2 in a film most readers probably haven't seen.
I cannot honestly say that the film is all that great. I think it's the kind of film you could watch with the sound off and not miss much. Except that it's packed to the gills with product placements, which is kind of annoying.
Friday, January 08, 2010
Tuesday, December 22, 2009
Tuesday, November 17, 2009
Best films of the decade - Collecting candidates
As we aim for the last several weeks of 2009, it seems like as good a time as any to think about the best films of the 00 decade. (It'd be nice if we could include a Bond film to the list, and I think ultimately we can put Casino Royale on the list.) I don't have a preset idea of how long the list should be, and I don't think it's terribly meaningful. For example, the 150th best film of the 70s was certainly better than the 50th best film of the 90s.
I'm more inclined to try to sort the list by genre. But to start, I'll just look through the lists of awards from each year and include or exclude the best films from that year, with a bit of commentary.
2000:
Best Picture winner: Gladiator
other nominees: Chocolat; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Erin Brockovich; Traffic
other notables: Requiem for a Dream, Shadow of the Vampire, Pollock, Almost Famous
Of the above listed, for me the only must-include film is Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. While I enjoyed Gladiator, it's little more than an action film with neat CGI. I've heard great things about Requiem for a Dream, but haven't had the stomach to face it.
p.s. Best In Show deserves mention in at least a couple categories.
2001:
Best Picture Winner: A Beatiful Mind
other nominees: Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The LotR: the Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge
other notables: Shrek, Training Day, Mullholland Drive, Amelie, Memento, The Royal Tenenbaums, Vanilla Sky, A Knight's Tale
You might expect me to automatically include the Nash biography, but I found its treatment of schizophrenia to be too magical for my tastes.
Shrek has to be included in any list of the decade's best animated films - at least the first of the three. The LotR trilogy certainly has to be included somehow. Moulin Rouge would definitely be on my list of the decade's best musicals (way ahead of Chicago). In the sci-fi category, I'd go against a lot of the sentiment at the time and exclude Memento as incoherent crap, while reserving judgment on Vanilla Sky. If only it didn't feature Tom Cruise, it'd be a lock!
Amelie is a lock, certainly. While Denzel was great in Training Day, I haven't felt that the film really has kept my interest well. OTOH, A Knight's Tale is certainly on my list of the best popcorn films of the decade.
One film from 2001 that has grown on me a lot over the past decade is The Royal Tenenbaums. This story of a dysfunctional family of geniuses initially frustrated me because it didn't seem to go anywhere, but now I think it's brilliant.
That leaves us with one more film, Gosford Park, which has been on my list since it came out. This Robert Altman-directed version of a British manor mystery is utterly delicious.
p.s. Donnie Darko.
2002:
Best Picture: Chicago
other nominees: Gangs of New York, The Hours, The LotR: the Two Towers, The Pianist
other notables: Spirited Away, Adaptation, Y Tu Mama Tambien, Far From Heaven, Bowling for Columbine
Even with a short list of musicals to choose from, I cannot include Chicago. The casting was terrible, by which I mean Renee Zellwegger. In fact, I find the entire Best Picture list to be weak.
Y Tu Mama Tambien is an amusing piece of soft porn masquerading as art. I could include it in a list of "best socially acceptable porn", I suppose.
Bowling for Columbine raises interesting questions about Michael Moore's documentaries. From a technical standpoint, they are not the best, but they cover the most important topics - topics that are conscientiously avoided by the rich and powerful studios.
The only unqualified entry from this year is Spirited Away, which not only soars to the top of the list of the decade's best animated films, but is surely on the list of best films overall.
Adaptation makes the cut. I'm a big Charlie Kaufman fan.
p.s. Bend it Like Beckham. Gonna mull over what to do with this one.
2003:
Best Picture: The LotR: the Return of the King
Other nominees: Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
other notables: Finding Nemo, Cold Mountain, Pirates of the Caribbean: the Curse of the Black Pearl, Whale Rider, The Barbarian Invasions
Already commented about The LotR trilogy. At the time, I was a huge fan of Mystic River. Has it held up? I'm unsure. Master and Commander and Seabiscuit are both simple, light fare.
Lost in Translation is definitely on the list.
The first installment of Pirates of the Caribbean is certainly on my list of best action films. I have a soft spot for Whale Rider. It'll fit in somehow.
2004:
Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby
other nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
other notables: Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, House of Flying Daggers, Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events, The Incredibles, Troy, Super Size Me
A good list for Best Picture. I'm a big fan of Million Dollar Baby, which makes the list for a number of reasons. The only nominee definitely not passing muster is The Aviator, but it's hard to say much about Finding Neverland since I've never seen it. Ray is on the list of best biopics. Amazing job by Jamie Foxx. And Sideways is also on the list, for a number of reasons.
In retrospect, it's hard to be happy with the process that left Hotel Rwanda off the Best Picture List. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind has the top spot in my list of the best sci-fi films of the decade. The Incredibles has a spot on the list of the best animated films.
p.s. Der Untergang
p.p.s. I saw Land of Plenty (sort of) in France. I need to see it again because I fell asleep during the film. It was never released in the US.
2005:
Best Picture: Crash
other nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Capote; Good Night, and Good Luck; Munich
other notables: Howl's Moving Castle, Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Syriana, The Constant Gardener, Memoirs of a Geisha, King Kong, Pride and Prejudice
The obvious one here is Brokeback Mountain. At the time I liked Crash just as much, but Brokeback seems, in retrospect, to be the far greater film.
I liked Capote, but it's hurt by being in competition with Infamous, a film from 2006 covering pretty much exactly the same material.
While Howl's Moving Castle is not quite at the same level of Spirited Away, the previous film by master Hiyao Miyazaki, it definitely merits inclusion. Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit similarly deserves special acclaim. (That reminds me - I need to add Chicken Run from 2000.)
2005 was a big year for political films.
Syriana is an interesting film that may be just on the outside looking in. Good Night, and Good Luck is just a bit too preachy for my tastes, though I do appreciate its sentiments. The Constant Gardener definitely makes the cut. Does this inclusion show my weakness for Rachel Weisz? Perhaps - but I do think that inclusion of an intelligent, well-formed female character is a strong positive for any film.
There is probably some category for March of the Penguins.
p.s. The Forty-Year Old Virgin. On the list of best comedies.
p.p.s. The Proposition. And The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada.
2006:
Best Picture: The Departed
Other nominees: Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
Other notables: Blood Diamond, The Last King of Scotland, Volver, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth, The Illusionist, The Black Dahlia, The Prestige, Flags of Our Fathers, Letters from Iwo Jima,
Wow. This was quite a good year!
I've already blogged about how much I enjoyed The Departed. Among the long list of those films above, the ones that I think must be included somehow are
Volver: best foreign-language (not to mention best prosthetic ass)
Little Miss Sunshine: best performance by a kid
The Last King of Scotland: for a couple reasons
Children of Men: on the list for best sci-fi
Pan's Labyrinth: on best fantasy list
Notes on a Scandal might be on the main list. I really like the acting in this film. Same goes for Little Children.
I need to see the two Eastwood films Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima at some point.
...and if I thought 2006 was good, here comes 2007, which has the film of the decade and a second film that would have been best of its year most years. The third-best
film is no slouch, either.
2007:
Best Picture: No Country For Old Men
other nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
other notables: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Ratatouille, Eastern Promises, Charlie Wilson's War, American Gangster, I'm Not There, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, 3:10 to Yuma, Sicko, In the Valley of Elah
I'm not going to beat around the bush here. No Country for Old Men is my favorite film of the decade.
There Will Be Blood features Daniel Day-Lewis in what I think is the best performance by a single actor in the decade.
Most years, Michael Clayton would be a good candidate for best picture, but it's not close for 2007.
Among films that remained below the radar, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead is a great one.
I thought Sicko was better than Bowling for Columbine or Farenheit 9/11.
Juno will be on a list somehow, as will Eastern Promises. And Sunshine.
2008:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Other nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader,
Other notables: The Dark Knight, Doubt, Iron Man
After 2006 and 2007, a relatively weak year. Slumdog Millionaire will at best be listed in a minor category. The year is most notable for the burst of super-hero films, especially The Dark Knight, which is currently listed as the 9th best film ever at IMDB.com, and is the all-time #2 on the list of domestic sales (after Titanic).
Well, there will be other kinds of categories. The Harry Potter films will need to be accounted for somehow.
I'm more inclined to try to sort the list by genre. But to start, I'll just look through the lists of awards from each year and include or exclude the best films from that year, with a bit of commentary.
2000:
Best Picture winner: Gladiator
other nominees: Chocolat; Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon; Erin Brockovich; Traffic
other notables: Requiem for a Dream, Shadow of the Vampire, Pollock, Almost Famous
Of the above listed, for me the only must-include film is Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon. While I enjoyed Gladiator, it's little more than an action film with neat CGI. I've heard great things about Requiem for a Dream, but haven't had the stomach to face it.
p.s. Best In Show deserves mention in at least a couple categories.
2001:
Best Picture Winner: A Beatiful Mind
other nominees: Gosford Park, In the Bedroom, The LotR: the Fellowship of the Ring, Moulin Rouge
other notables: Shrek, Training Day, Mullholland Drive, Amelie, Memento, The Royal Tenenbaums, Vanilla Sky, A Knight's Tale
You might expect me to automatically include the Nash biography, but I found its treatment of schizophrenia to be too magical for my tastes.
Shrek has to be included in any list of the decade's best animated films - at least the first of the three. The LotR trilogy certainly has to be included somehow. Moulin Rouge would definitely be on my list of the decade's best musicals (way ahead of Chicago). In the sci-fi category, I'd go against a lot of the sentiment at the time and exclude Memento as incoherent crap, while reserving judgment on Vanilla Sky. If only it didn't feature Tom Cruise, it'd be a lock!
Amelie is a lock, certainly. While Denzel was great in Training Day, I haven't felt that the film really has kept my interest well. OTOH, A Knight's Tale is certainly on my list of the best popcorn films of the decade.
One film from 2001 that has grown on me a lot over the past decade is The Royal Tenenbaums. This story of a dysfunctional family of geniuses initially frustrated me because it didn't seem to go anywhere, but now I think it's brilliant.
That leaves us with one more film, Gosford Park, which has been on my list since it came out. This Robert Altman-directed version of a British manor mystery is utterly delicious.
p.s. Donnie Darko.
2002:
Best Picture: Chicago
other nominees: Gangs of New York, The Hours, The LotR: the Two Towers, The Pianist
other notables: Spirited Away, Adaptation, Y Tu Mama Tambien, Far From Heaven, Bowling for Columbine
Even with a short list of musicals to choose from, I cannot include Chicago. The casting was terrible, by which I mean Renee Zellwegger. In fact, I find the entire Best Picture list to be weak.
Y Tu Mama Tambien is an amusing piece of soft porn masquerading as art. I could include it in a list of "best socially acceptable porn", I suppose.
Bowling for Columbine raises interesting questions about Michael Moore's documentaries. From a technical standpoint, they are not the best, but they cover the most important topics - topics that are conscientiously avoided by the rich and powerful studios.
The only unqualified entry from this year is Spirited Away, which not only soars to the top of the list of the decade's best animated films, but is surely on the list of best films overall.
Adaptation makes the cut. I'm a big Charlie Kaufman fan.
p.s. Bend it Like Beckham. Gonna mull over what to do with this one.
2003:
Best Picture: The LotR: the Return of the King
Other nominees: Lost in Translation, Master and Commander: the Far Side of the World, Mystic River, Seabiscuit
other notables: Finding Nemo, Cold Mountain, Pirates of the Caribbean: the Curse of the Black Pearl, Whale Rider, The Barbarian Invasions
Already commented about The LotR trilogy. At the time, I was a huge fan of Mystic River. Has it held up? I'm unsure. Master and Commander and Seabiscuit are both simple, light fare.
Lost in Translation is definitely on the list.
The first installment of Pirates of the Caribbean is certainly on my list of best action films. I have a soft spot for Whale Rider. It'll fit in somehow.
2004:
Best Picture: Million Dollar Baby
other nominees: The Aviator, Finding Neverland, Ray, Sideways
other notables: Hotel Rwanda, Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind, House of Flying Daggers, Lemony Snicket's a Series of Unfortunate Events, The Incredibles, Troy, Super Size Me
A good list for Best Picture. I'm a big fan of Million Dollar Baby, which makes the list for a number of reasons. The only nominee definitely not passing muster is The Aviator, but it's hard to say much about Finding Neverland since I've never seen it. Ray is on the list of best biopics. Amazing job by Jamie Foxx. And Sideways is also on the list, for a number of reasons.
In retrospect, it's hard to be happy with the process that left Hotel Rwanda off the Best Picture List. Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind has the top spot in my list of the best sci-fi films of the decade. The Incredibles has a spot on the list of the best animated films.
p.s. Der Untergang
p.p.s. I saw Land of Plenty (sort of) in France. I need to see it again because I fell asleep during the film. It was never released in the US.
2005:
Best Picture: Crash
other nominees: Brokeback Mountain; Capote; Good Night, and Good Luck; Munich
other notables: Howl's Moving Castle, Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit, Syriana, The Constant Gardener, Memoirs of a Geisha, King Kong, Pride and Prejudice
The obvious one here is Brokeback Mountain. At the time I liked Crash just as much, but Brokeback seems, in retrospect, to be the far greater film.
I liked Capote, but it's hurt by being in competition with Infamous, a film from 2006 covering pretty much exactly the same material.
While Howl's Moving Castle is not quite at the same level of Spirited Away, the previous film by master Hiyao Miyazaki, it definitely merits inclusion. Wallace and Gromit in the Curse of the Were-Rabbit similarly deserves special acclaim. (That reminds me - I need to add Chicken Run from 2000.)
2005 was a big year for political films.
Syriana is an interesting film that may be just on the outside looking in. Good Night, and Good Luck is just a bit too preachy for my tastes, though I do appreciate its sentiments. The Constant Gardener definitely makes the cut. Does this inclusion show my weakness for Rachel Weisz? Perhaps - but I do think that inclusion of an intelligent, well-formed female character is a strong positive for any film.
There is probably some category for March of the Penguins.
p.s. The Forty-Year Old Virgin. On the list of best comedies.
p.p.s. The Proposition. And The Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada.
2006:
Best Picture: The Departed
Other nominees: Babel, Letters from Iwo Jima, Little Miss Sunshine, The Queen
Other notables: Blood Diamond, The Last King of Scotland, Volver, Little Children, Notes on a Scandal, Children of Men, Pan's Labyrinth, The Illusionist, The Black Dahlia, The Prestige, Flags of Our Fathers, Letters from Iwo Jima,
Wow. This was quite a good year!
I've already blogged about how much I enjoyed The Departed. Among the long list of those films above, the ones that I think must be included somehow are
Volver: best foreign-language (not to mention best prosthetic ass)
Little Miss Sunshine: best performance by a kid
The Last King of Scotland: for a couple reasons
Children of Men: on the list for best sci-fi
Pan's Labyrinth: on best fantasy list
Notes on a Scandal might be on the main list. I really like the acting in this film. Same goes for Little Children.
I need to see the two Eastwood films Flags of Our Fathers and Letters from Iwo Jima at some point.
...and if I thought 2006 was good, here comes 2007, which has the film of the decade and a second film that would have been best of its year most years. The third-best
film is no slouch, either.
2007:
Best Picture: No Country For Old Men
other nominees: Atonement, Juno, Michael Clayton, There Will Be Blood
other notables: Before the Devil Knows You're Dead, Ratatouille, Eastern Promises, Charlie Wilson's War, American Gangster, I'm Not There, The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, 3:10 to Yuma, Sicko, In the Valley of Elah
I'm not going to beat around the bush here. No Country for Old Men is my favorite film of the decade.
There Will Be Blood features Daniel Day-Lewis in what I think is the best performance by a single actor in the decade.
Most years, Michael Clayton would be a good candidate for best picture, but it's not close for 2007.
Among films that remained below the radar, Before the Devil Knows You're Dead is a great one.
I thought Sicko was better than Bowling for Columbine or Farenheit 9/11.
Juno will be on a list somehow, as will Eastern Promises. And Sunshine.
2008:
Best Picture: Slumdog Millionaire
Other nominees: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Frost/Nixon, Milk, The Reader,
Other notables: The Dark Knight, Doubt, Iron Man
After 2006 and 2007, a relatively weak year. Slumdog Millionaire will at best be listed in a minor category. The year is most notable for the burst of super-hero films, especially The Dark Knight, which is currently listed as the 9th best film ever at IMDB.com, and is the all-time #2 on the list of domestic sales (after Titanic).
Well, there will be other kinds of categories. The Harry Potter films will need to be accounted for somehow.
Friday, November 13, 2009
Warum?
The latest Snickers ad features a couple guys banishing their hunger by having a Snickers chocolate bar. They wonder where the hunger goes, and one speculates "Germany"?
At which point we are switched to a lonely man in Germany, eating away, who says
"Warum bin ich immer Hunger?"
This translates to "Why am I always hunger?"
It's a silly mistake with the two most commonly used German verbs
haben (to have) and sein (to be). I was taught that I should say
"Ich habe Hunger" but perhaps "Ich bin hungrig" is also allowed. But no matter how you slice it, "Ich bin Hunger" is dead wrong.
So...what process led to Snickers botching such a simple translation? Worse,
why is the ad still running, weeks later, as if there is no mistake?
Language skills are frowned upon in the US.
I'll try to make more amusing blog posts in the near future.
At which point we are switched to a lonely man in Germany, eating away, who says
"Warum bin ich immer Hunger?"
This translates to "Why am I always hunger?"
It's a silly mistake with the two most commonly used German verbs
haben (to have) and sein (to be). I was taught that I should say
"Ich habe Hunger" but perhaps "Ich bin hungrig" is also allowed. But no matter how you slice it, "Ich bin Hunger" is dead wrong.
So...what process led to Snickers botching such a simple translation? Worse,
why is the ad still running, weeks later, as if there is no mistake?
Language skills are frowned upon in the US.
I'll try to make more amusing blog posts in the near future.
Last Chance Harvey
One of the nice things of having cable and being essentially housebound with a cold is that you may stumble upon a film you'd never heard of featuring two of your favorite actors. So I've surfing around, having just rewatched the entirety of The Royal Tenenbaums for the first time, and I see a film featuring Dustin Hoffman and Emma Thompson and, well, that's a Must-See.
It's called Last Chance Harvey. Dustin Hoffman is Harvey, a writer of jingles in London for his daughter's wedding. Emma Thompson works for the government taking surveys at Heathrow. The first time they meet he brushes her off because he's tired from the overnight flight.
His plan is to fly back after the wedding and before the reception because he's got a sales pitch to make. But he misses the flight back, finds out he's being fired, and that his daugher wants her stepfather to give him away, so...he hits the airport bar. And meets Emma Thompson.
I'm not sure there's all that much to this film. For me it hits a sweet spot with the images of an American in London. The dialogue is extremely intelligent. It is very difficult to show strangers overcoming the usual social barriers, but this film does it well. And watching two top actors at the top of their game, in a well-directed film with a great script - why had I not heard of this film before?
This film deals with fractured families, absent fathers, Americans in London, middle-aged people looking for a second chance - basically all sorts of themes smacking Whispers right in the face. Nicely done.
It's called Last Chance Harvey. Dustin Hoffman is Harvey, a writer of jingles in London for his daughter's wedding. Emma Thompson works for the government taking surveys at Heathrow. The first time they meet he brushes her off because he's tired from the overnight flight.
His plan is to fly back after the wedding and before the reception because he's got a sales pitch to make. But he misses the flight back, finds out he's being fired, and that his daugher wants her stepfather to give him away, so...he hits the airport bar. And meets Emma Thompson.
I'm not sure there's all that much to this film. For me it hits a sweet spot with the images of an American in London. The dialogue is extremely intelligent. It is very difficult to show strangers overcoming the usual social barriers, but this film does it well. And watching two top actors at the top of their game, in a well-directed film with a great script - why had I not heard of this film before?
This film deals with fractured families, absent fathers, Americans in London, middle-aged people looking for a second chance - basically all sorts of themes smacking Whispers right in the face. Nicely done.
Tuesday, October 27, 2009
NFL 2009: NFC
Um, it's a bit late to do this, but...recalling my thinking from the beginning of the
season.
NFC East: Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Skins
NFC South: Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Bucs
NFC North: Vikings, Bears, Packers, Lions
NFC West: Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams
Wildcards: Saints and Eagles.
From the current perspective I would flip the Falcons and Saints, but I won't
pretend I thought the Saints would start the season 6-0. Even though I thought
the Cutler trade was bad for the Bears, I didn't foresee their injuries on defense,
and they are now at best an also-ran, destined to finish behind the Packers and
Vikings.
season.
NFC East: Giants, Eagles, Cowboys, Skins
NFC South: Falcons, Saints, Panthers, Bucs
NFC North: Vikings, Bears, Packers, Lions
NFC West: Cardinals, Seahawks, 49ers, Rams
Wildcards: Saints and Eagles.
From the current perspective I would flip the Falcons and Saints, but I won't
pretend I thought the Saints would start the season 6-0. Even though I thought
the Cutler trade was bad for the Bears, I didn't foresee their injuries on defense,
and they are now at best an also-ran, destined to finish behind the Packers and
Vikings.
Sunday, September 06, 2009
NFL 2009: AFC
Watching The Sports Reporters on ESPN, thinking on the upcoming season. I figure I'll make a few predictions.
AFC East
The Pats continue to reap the benefits of a weak division. When Parcells took over the Dolphins, I figured that they would eventually build an organization that might pass the Pats. But I don't see them repeating as division champions. It's a lot easier to go 11-5 against a last-place schedule than a first-place schedule. In any case, 11-5 won't be enough to win this division, unless Brady has another season-ending injury. The Pats have a soft schedule and should go 12-4 easily. The Dolphins finish second and the Bills and Jets are also-rans.
AFC North
A huge gap between the powerhouses and the also-rans here. We have no evidence from last season that would indicate that the Bengals and Browns can compete with the Ravens and Steelers. While both the Bengals and Browns have enough talent to pull off upsets, and I could even see one of the two teams going over .500, the easy pick here is to have the Ravens and Steelers both make the playoffs. I'll go with the Ravens winning the division, based on the problems the Steelers' O-Line has protecting Roethlisberger.
AFC South
Jeff Fisher continues to have problems converting his regular season behemoths into a franchise that can advance in the playoffs. I think it was clear that, by the time the playoffs rolled around last year, that the Titans had peaked too early.
The Colts are always the Colts, and I'll pick them to win the division, esp. considering that they didn't do so last year. The fates decree that they will play the Pats every season, and to do so in 2010, they'll have to win the division. The Titans will miss Albert Haynesworth, but they still have an excellent defense and running game, and that probably will be enough to get a playoff spot. The Texans are a popular pick to make the leap to contender. Andre Johnson is as good a WR as anybody, and the defense is solid. Sage Rosenfels has left town, but can Matt Schaub stay healthy? They are a team to watch. The Jaguars' vaunted running game collapsed completely last year as a rash of injuries took down their O-Line. Can they recover? Can David Garrard recover his Silky form, or are the hat and cane retired?
AFC West
Year Three of the Norv Turner Drive the Team into the Ground is with us. By all rights, the Chargers should have missed the playoffs last year, and Turner's job should already be in jeopardy, but thanks to an epic fail by Shanahan's Broncos, the Chargers weaseled their way into the playoffs. One would expect that this would be the season for the inevitable Turner collapse to kick in, but the problem is that the Broncos have effectively destroyed their own franchise in the off-season. I can understand Pat Bowden losing patience with Shanahan's weak defenses, but do we really think Josh McDaniels will do a better job? The early results are not auspicious. The Cutler trade is a disaster for the Broncos. Brandon Marshall has already quit on them. And their starting point was a defense that could be run on by anybody. And since the Chiefs are rebuilding and the Raiders continue to be awful, the Chargers should win this division by default.
It's hard to predict the playoffs this far in advance, since so much will depend on injuries. The six team I've picked include three recent Super Bowl champions (four, if you count the Ravens). Of course it's tempting to run with the Pats, but I have real questions about whether their D can handle very physical offenses. Their solution to that problem in recent years has been simply to outscore the opposition. I am not feeling good vibes about the Titans, and the Chargers are here only by default. Perhaps the Colts will show that their history of playoff failures was all Dungy's fault? Could be. But right now I'm feeling a vibe for the Ravens, if only to change things up a bit.
AFC East
The Pats continue to reap the benefits of a weak division. When Parcells took over the Dolphins, I figured that they would eventually build an organization that might pass the Pats. But I don't see them repeating as division champions. It's a lot easier to go 11-5 against a last-place schedule than a first-place schedule. In any case, 11-5 won't be enough to win this division, unless Brady has another season-ending injury. The Pats have a soft schedule and should go 12-4 easily. The Dolphins finish second and the Bills and Jets are also-rans.
AFC North
A huge gap between the powerhouses and the also-rans here. We have no evidence from last season that would indicate that the Bengals and Browns can compete with the Ravens and Steelers. While both the Bengals and Browns have enough talent to pull off upsets, and I could even see one of the two teams going over .500, the easy pick here is to have the Ravens and Steelers both make the playoffs. I'll go with the Ravens winning the division, based on the problems the Steelers' O-Line has protecting Roethlisberger.
AFC South
Jeff Fisher continues to have problems converting his regular season behemoths into a franchise that can advance in the playoffs. I think it was clear that, by the time the playoffs rolled around last year, that the Titans had peaked too early.
The Colts are always the Colts, and I'll pick them to win the division, esp. considering that they didn't do so last year. The fates decree that they will play the Pats every season, and to do so in 2010, they'll have to win the division. The Titans will miss Albert Haynesworth, but they still have an excellent defense and running game, and that probably will be enough to get a playoff spot. The Texans are a popular pick to make the leap to contender. Andre Johnson is as good a WR as anybody, and the defense is solid. Sage Rosenfels has left town, but can Matt Schaub stay healthy? They are a team to watch. The Jaguars' vaunted running game collapsed completely last year as a rash of injuries took down their O-Line. Can they recover? Can David Garrard recover his Silky form, or are the hat and cane retired?
AFC West
Year Three of the Norv Turner Drive the Team into the Ground is with us. By all rights, the Chargers should have missed the playoffs last year, and Turner's job should already be in jeopardy, but thanks to an epic fail by Shanahan's Broncos, the Chargers weaseled their way into the playoffs. One would expect that this would be the season for the inevitable Turner collapse to kick in, but the problem is that the Broncos have effectively destroyed their own franchise in the off-season. I can understand Pat Bowden losing patience with Shanahan's weak defenses, but do we really think Josh McDaniels will do a better job? The early results are not auspicious. The Cutler trade is a disaster for the Broncos. Brandon Marshall has already quit on them. And their starting point was a defense that could be run on by anybody. And since the Chiefs are rebuilding and the Raiders continue to be awful, the Chargers should win this division by default.
It's hard to predict the playoffs this far in advance, since so much will depend on injuries. The six team I've picked include three recent Super Bowl champions (four, if you count the Ravens). Of course it's tempting to run with the Pats, but I have real questions about whether their D can handle very physical offenses. Their solution to that problem in recent years has been simply to outscore the opposition. I am not feeling good vibes about the Titans, and the Chargers are here only by default. Perhaps the Colts will show that their history of playoff failures was all Dungy's fault? Could be. But right now I'm feeling a vibe for the Ravens, if only to change things up a bit.
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